A model to predict inhospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis, ascites and hyponatremia

Link to article at PubMed

Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2022 Feb 14. doi: 10.1097/MEG.0000000000002357. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Hypervolemic hyponatremia is a late complication of portal hypertension. Hyponatremia is associated with a higher mortality in hospitalized patients. In this study, we evaluated the risk factors for inhospital mortality and developed a mortality prediction model in patients with cirrhosis and hyponatremia.

METHODS: Using the national inpatient sample data for years 2016 and 2017, we identified cirrhotic patients hospitalized with ascites and hyponatremia (n = 9153). We identified independent risk factors of inhospital mortality and developed a prediction model in a training group and assessed its accuracy in a validation group. To enhance the clinical utility, we further stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk mortality risk groups using cutoff points selected by decision tree analysis.

RESULTS: The inhospital mortality in our cohort was 10.2% (n = 846). Multivariable analysis showed that age at least 65 years, variceal bleeding, sepsis, coagulopathy, and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF defined as two or more organ failures) were independent risk factors for mortality. The prediction model using these five risk factors had an AUROC of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.82] for the training data and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86) for the validation data. The mortality risks in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 4% (95% CI, 3-4), 29% (95% CI, 28-33), and 43% (95% CI, 37-50), respectively.

CONCLUSION: We have developed a clinically meaningful inhospital prognostic model with excellent discrimination that will enable clinicians to risk stratify hospitalized patients with hyponatremia, ascites, and cirrhosis.

PMID:35170534 | DOI:10.1097/MEG.0000000000002357

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