Predicting frequent hospital admission risk in Singapore: a retrospective cohort study to investigate the impact of comorbidities, acute illness burden and social determinants of health.
BMJ Open. 2016 Oct 14;6(10):e012705
Authors: Low LL, Liu N, Wang S, Thumboo J, Ong ME, Lee KH
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of comorbidities, acute illness burden and social determinants of health on predicting the risk of frequent hospital admissions.
DESIGN: Multivariable logistic regression was used to associate the predictive variables extracted from electronic health records and frequent hospital admission risk. The model's performance of our predictive model was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation.
SETTING: A single tertiary hospital in Singapore.
PARTICIPANTS: All adult patients admitted to the hospital between 1 January 2013 and 31 May 2014 (n=25 244).
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Frequent hospital admissions, defined as 3 or more inpatient admissions within 12 months of discharge. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the predictive model, and the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values for various cut-offs.
RESULTS: 4322 patients (17.1%) met the primary outcome. 11 variables were observed as significant predictors and included in the final regression model. The strongest independent predictor was treatment with antidepressants in the past 1 year (adjusted OR 2.51, 95% CI 2.26 to 2.78). Other notable predictors include requiring dialysis and treatment with intravenous furosemide during the index admission. The predictive model achieved an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.85) for predicting frequent hospital admission risk, with a sensitivity of 73.9% (95% CI 72.6% to 75.2%), specificity of 79.1% (78.5% to 79.6%) and positive predictive value of 42.2% (95% CI 41.1% to 43.3%) at the cut-off of 0.235.
CONCLUSIONS: We have identified several predictors for assessing the risk of frequent hospital admissions that achieved high discriminative model performance. Further research is necessary using an external validation cohort.
PMID: 27742630 [PubMed - in process]