Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Score as a Predictor of In-Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: A Novel Approach to a Classic Scoring System

Link to article at PubMed

Cureus. 2021 May 22;13(5):e15179. doi: 10.7759/cureus.15179.

ABSTRACT

Background Limited data is available for reliable and accurate predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Methods This scientific study is a retrospective cohort study of patients without a known history of liver diseases who were hospitalized with COVID-19 viral infection. Patients were stratified into low score groups (Model of End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] score <10) and high score groups (MELD ≥10). Clinical outcomes were evaluated, including in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay, and intensive care unit length of stay (ICU LOS). Results Our cohort of 186 COVID-19 positive patients included 88 (47%) women with a mean age of 60 years in the low score group and mean age of 73 years in the high score group. Patients in the high score group were older in age (p<0.0001) and more likely to have history of diabetes mellitus (p=0.0020), stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) (p=0.0013), hypertension (p<0.0001), stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) (p=0.0163), asthma (p=0.0356), dementia (p<0.0001), and chronic heart failure (p=0.0055). The in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice rate was significantly higher in the high-score group as opposed to the low-score group (p=0.0014). Conversely, there was no significant difference among both groups in the hospital length of stay (LOS) and ICU LOS (p=0.6929 and p=0.7689, respectively). Conclusion Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection and found to have a MELD score greater than or equal to 10 were found to have a higher mortality as compared to their counterparts. Conversely a low MELD score is a very strong indicator of a more favorable prognosis, indicating hospital survival. We propose using the MELD score as an adjunct for risk stratifying patients diagnosed with COVID-19 without prior history of liver dysfunction.

PMID:34178500 | PMC:PMC8216703 | DOI:10.7759/cureus.15179

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