Derivation of a Clinical Risk Score to Predict 14-Day Occurrence of Hypoxia, ICU Admission, and Death Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019

Link to article at PubMed

J Gen Intern Med. 2020 Dec 3:1-8. doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-06353-5. Online ahead of print.


BACKGROUND: Uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 regarding rapid progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome and unusual clinical characteristics make discharge from a monitored setting challenging. A clinical risk score to predict 14-day occurrence of hypoxia, ICU admission, and death is unavailable.

OBJECTIVE: Derive and validate a risk score to predict suitability for discharge from a monitored setting among an early cohort of patients with COVID-19.

DESIGN: Model derivation and validation in a retrospective cohort. We built a manual forward stepwise logistic regression model to identify variables associated with suitability for discharge and assigned points to each variable. Event-free patients were included after at least 14 days of follow-up.

PARTICIPANTS: All adult patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis between March 1, 2020, and April 12, 2020, in 10 hospitals in Massachusetts, USA.

MAIN MEASURES: Fourteen-day composite predicting hypoxia, ICU admission, and death. We calculated a risk score for each patient as a predictor of suitability for discharge evaluated by area under the curve.

KEY RESULTS: Of 2059 patients with COVID-19, 1326 met inclusion. The 1014-patient training cohort had a mean age of 58 years, was 56% female, and 65% had at least one comorbidity. A total of 255 (25%) patients were suitable for discharge. Variables associated with suitability for discharge were age, oxygen saturation, and albumin level, yielding a risk score between 0 and 55. At a cut point of 30, the score had a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 82%. The respective c-statistic for the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.8939 (95% CI, 0.8687 to 0.9192) and 0.8685 (95% CI, 0.8095 to 0.9275). The score performed similarly for inpatients and emergency department patients.

CONCLUSIONS: A 3-item risk score for patients with COVID-19 consisting of age, oxygen saturation, and an acute phase reactant (albumin) using point of care data predicts suitability for discharge and may optimize scarce resources.

PMID:33274414 | PMC:PMC7713904 | DOI:10.1007/s11606-020-06353-5

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