Geospatial Distribution and Predictors of Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: A Cohort Study

Link to article at PubMed

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2020 Sep 14;7(10):ofaa436. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofaa436. eCollection 2020 Oct.


BACKGROUND: The global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic offers the opportunity to assess how hospitals manage the care of hospitalized patients with varying demographics and clinical presentations. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the impact of densely populated residential areas on hospitalization and to identify predictors of length of stay and mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in one of the hardest hit counties internationally.

METHODS: This was a single-center cohort study of 1325 sequentially hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in New York between March 2, 2020, to May 11, 2020. Geospatial distribution of study patients' residences relative to population density in the region were mapped, and data analysis included hospital length of stay, need and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and mortality. Logistic regression models were constructed to predict discharge dispositions in the remaining active study patients.

RESULTS: The median age of the study cohort (interquartile range [IQR]) was 62 (49-75) years, and more than half were male (57%) with history of hypertension (60%), obesity (41%), and diabetes (42%). Geographic residence of the study patients was disproportionately associated with areas of higher population density (r s = 0.235; P = .004), with noted "hot spots" in the region. Study patients were predominantly hypertensive (MAP > 90 mmHg; 670, 51%) on presentation with lymphopenia (590, 55%), hyponatremia (411, 31%), and kidney dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2; 381, 29%). Of the patients with a disposition (1188/1325), 15% (182/1188) required IMV and 21% (250/1188) developed acute kidney injury. In patients on IMV, the median (IQR) hospital length of stay in survivors (22 [16.5-29.5] days) was significantly longer than that of nonsurvivors (15 [10-23.75] days), but this was not due to prolonged time on the ventilator. The overall mortality in all hospitalized patients was 15%, and in patients receiving IMV it was 48%, which is predicted to minimally rise from 48% to 49% based on logistic regression models constructed to project disposition in the remaining patients on ventilators. Acute kidney injury during hospitalization (odds ratioE, 3.23) was the strongest predictor of mortality in patients requiring IMV.

CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to collectively utilize the demographics, clinical characteristics, and hospital course of COVID-19 patients to identify predictors of poor outcomes that can be used for resource allocation in future waves of the pandemic.

PMID:33117852 | PMC:PMC7543608 | DOI:10.1093/ofid/ofaa436

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