Determination of risk factors for predicting the onset of symptoms in asymptomatic COVID-19 infected patients

Link to article at PubMed

Int J Med Sci. 2020 Aug 6;17(14):2187-2193. doi: 10.7150/ijms.47576. eCollection 2020.


Background: The number of asymptomatic infected patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) is rampaging around the world but limited information aimed on risk factors of asymptomatic infections. The purpose of this study is to investigate the risk factors of symptoms onset and clinical features in asymptomatic COVID-19 infected patients. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in 70 asymptomatic COVID-2019 infected patients confirmed by nucleic acid tests in Hunan province, China between 28 January 2020 and 18 February, 2020. The epidemiological, clinical features and laboratory data were reviewed and analyzed. Presence or absence at the onset of symptoms was taken as the outcome. A Cox regression model was performed to evaluate the potential predictors of the onset of symptoms. Results: The study included 36 males and 34 females with a mean age of 33.24±20.40 years (range, 0.5-84 years). There were 22 asymptomatic carriers developed symptoms during hospitalization isolated observation, and diagnosed as confirmed cases, while 48 cases remained asymptomatic throughout the course of disease. Of 70 asymptomatic patients, 14 (14/70, 20%) had underlying diseases, 3 (3/70, 4.3%) had drinking history, and 11 (11/70, 15.7%) had smoking history. 22 patients developed symptoms onset of fever (4/22, 18.2%), cough (13/22, 59.1%), chest discomfort (2/22, 9.1%), fatigue (1/22, 4.5%), pharyngalgia (1/22, 4.5%) during hospitalization; only one (1/22, 4.5%) patient developed signs of both cough and pharyngalgia. Abnormalities on chest CT were detected among 35 of the 69 patients (50.7%) after admission, except for one pregnant woman had not been examined. 4 (4/70, 5.7%) and 8 (8/70, 11.4%) cases showed leucopenia and lymphopenia. With the effective antiviral treatment, all the 70 asymptomatic infections had been discharged, none cases developed severe pneumonia, admission to intensive care unit, or died. The mean time from nucleic acid positive to negative was 13.2±6.84 days. Cox regression analysis showed that smoking history (P=0.028, hazard ratio=4.49, 95% CI 1.18-17.08) and existence of pulmonary disease (P=0.038, hazard ratio=7.09, 95% CI 1.12-44.90) were risk factors of the onset of symptoms in asymptomatic carries. Conclusion: The initially asymptomatic patients can develop mild symptoms and have a good prognosis. History of smoking and pulmonary disease was prone to illness onset in asymptomatic patients, and it is necessary to be highly vigilant to those patients.

PMID:32922180 | PMC:PMC7484673 | DOI:10.7150/ijms.47576

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