Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARS-Cov-2 viral load

Link to article at PubMed

Gonçalves A, et al. medRxiv 2020.


We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than 2 logs, drug efficacy needs to be greater than 80% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 50% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 20-70% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severe patients.

PMID:32511641 | PMC:PMC7276997 | DOI:10.1101/2020.04.04.20047886

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