A Risk Score to Predict the Development of Hepatic Encephalopathy in a Population-Based Cohort of Patients with Cirrhosis.
Hepatology. 2017 Nov 01;:
Authors: Tapper EB, Parikh N, Sengupta N, Mellinger J, Ratz D, Lok AS, Su GL
Over 40% of patients with cirrhosis will develop hepatic encephalopathy (HE). HE is associated with decreased survival, falls, motor vehicle accidents, and frequent hospitalization. Accordingly, we aimed to develop a tool to risk-stratify patients for HE development. We studied a population-based cohort of all patients with cirrhosis without baseline HE (N=1,979) from the Veterans Administration from Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio (1/1/2005-12/31/10) using demographic, clinical, laboratory, and pharmacy data. The primary outcome was the development of HE. Risk-scores were constructed with both baseline and longitudinal data (annually updated parameters) and validated using bootstrapping. The cohort had mean age of 58.0±8.3 years, 36% had hepatitis C, 17% had ascites. Opiates, benzodiazepines, statins, and nonselective beta-blockers were taken at baseline by 24%, 13%, 17%, and 12%. Overall, 863(43.7%) developed HE within 5 years. In multivariable models, risk factors (HR, 95%CI) for HE included higher bilirubin (1.07, 1.05-1.09) and nonselective beta-blocker use (1.34, 1.09-1.64), while higher albumin (0.54, 0.48-0.59) and statin use (0.80, 0.65-0.98) were protective. Other clinical factors, including opiate and benzodiazepine use were not predictive. The AUROC for HE using the 4 significant variables in baseline and longitudinal models were 0.68 (0.66-0.70) and 0.73 (0.71-0.75), respectively. Model effects were validated and converted into a risk score. A score ≤0 in our longitudinal model assigns a 6% 1-year probability of HE while a score >20 assigns a 38% 1-year risk.
CONCLUSION: Patients with cirrhosis can be stratified by a simple risk-score for HE that accounts for changing clinical data. Our data also highlight a role for statins in reducing cirrhosis complications including HE. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
PMID: 29091289 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]