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CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 scores predict mortality in patients with coronary artery disease.
Intern Emerg Med. 2017 Feb 04;:
Authors: Huang FY, Huang BT, Pu XB, Yang Y, Chen SJ, Xia TL, Gui YY, Peng Y, Liu RS, Ou Y, Chen F, Zhu Y, Chen M
Abstract
Few studies to date address the predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 in CAD patients. Our aim is to investigate the prognostic performance of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 scores in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Angiographically obstructive CAD patients were enrolled. The prognostic performance of the three risk scores was evaluated using Cox hazards models. In addition, we compared their predictive values by calculating C statistics, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). The endpoints are death from any cause and cardiovascular death. Of 3295 subjects with CAD, the mean CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 scores are 1.2 ± 1.0, 2.4 ± 1.4, and 1.6 ± 1.4, respectively. The CHADS2-guided risk classification is markedly distinct from CHA2DS-2-VASc- and R2CHADS2-guided ones. Over a median follow-up of 24 months, a total of 290 (rate 4.00/100 person-year) deaths occurred, and 163 (rate 2.2/100 person-year) were attributed to cardiovascular deaths. Event rates increase by CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 (P for trend <0.001). The multivariate analyses show 60, 111 and 82% higher risk of mortality per unit increase of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 scores, respectively. Comparing with CHADS2 score (c-statistic = 0.61), CHA2DS2-VASc (c-statistic 0.65, NRI 0.52 and IDI 0.06, P for all <0.05) and R2CHADS2 (c-statistic 0.66, NRI 0.43 and IDI 0.09, P for all <0.05) scores provide better discrimination and reclassification for mortality. Also, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 have comparable predictive ability of mortality to the GRACE score. The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 scores are simple yet robust prognostic tools in CAD patients.
PMID: 28161883 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]