An adaptive, phase II, dose-finding clinical trial design to evaluate L-carnitine in the treatment of septic shock based on efficacy and predictive probability of subsequent phase III success.
Crit Care Med. 2013 Jul;41(7):1674-8
Authors: Lewis RJ, Viele K, Broglio K, Berry SM, Jones AE
OBJECTIVES: Sepsis is the tenth leading cause of death in the United States. Despite extensive research, mortality rates for sepsis have not substantially improved in the last several decades. We describe an innovative phase II clinical trial design for evaluating the addition of L-carnitine to the treatment of vasopressor-dependent septic shock.
DESIGN: The design incorporates a variety of features to increase efficiency, including a normal dynamic linear dose-response model, adaptive randomization, and early stopping for futility or success based on the probability that a future phase III trial using a 28-day mortality outcome would be successful.
SETTING: Trial design and computer simulation of a trial to be conducted in the emergency department and ICU.
INTERVENTIONS: Proposed to study intravenous L-carnitine.
MEASUREMENTS: The proposed trial uses an early endpoint, the 48-hour change in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, to drive adaptive randomization and dose selection.
MAIN RESULTS: We use existing data to model the expected relationship between the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment change and the 28-day mortality to determine the trial's operating characteristics using Monte Carlo simulation.
CONCLUSIONS: The resulting trial efficiently identifies the best dose of L-carnitine and provides clear guidance regarding whether to continue development into phase III.
PMID: 23514753 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]